The Logic of Why Ethereum Classic Will Rise 1000x in the Medium To Long Term

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My thesis of why Ethereum Classic (ETC) will rise 1000x in the medium to long term is:

  1. Only 3 or 4 chains will exist at the base layer [1] with market shares of more or less 50%, 25%, 12.5%, and 6.25% (all the rest perhaps the other 6.25%).
  2. Proof of work based Nakamoto consensus [2] will be the base layer mechanism in the blockchain industry stack because it is orders of magnitude more secure than proof of stake [3] [4] and other consensus mechanisms.
  3. ETC is the only secure proof of work smart contracts platform [5] at the base layer.
  4. As Bitcoin, ETC has a mechanical, algorithmic, and capped, thus sound and trust minimized monetary policy [6].
  5. Bitcoin will be the largest system at the base layer [7] with 50% share and ETC will be second with 25% because of its high value as a general computing platform.
  6. The base layer will be analogous to gold [8] which has about $8 trillion [9] in value.
  7. If the base layer only achieves 50% of the value of gold, then Bitcoin will be worth $2 trillion or around $95,000 per BTC, and Ethereum Classic $1 trillion or around $4,760 per ETC.
BTC & ETC vs Gold

Both values on point 7 are on a fully diluted basis, meaning BTC is calculated with a 21 million supply and ETC with a 210 million supply.

References

[1] Why There Will Only Be 3 or 4 Surviving Blockchains in the Future – by Donald McIntyre: https://etherplan.com/2019/05/17/why-there-will-only-be-3-or-4-surviving-blockchains-in-the-future/7603/

[2] Why Proof of Work Based Nakamoto Consensus Is Secure and Complete – by Donald McIntyre: https://etherplan.com/2020/03/21/why-proof-of-work-based-nakamoto-consensus-is-secure-and-complete/10509/

[3] Why Proof of Stake Is Less Secure Than Proof of Work – by Donald McIntyre: https://etherplan.com/2019/10/07/why-proof-of-stake-is-less-secure-than-proof-of-work/9077/

[4] Proof of Work Has Division of Power, Proof of Stake Does Not – by Donald McIntyre: https://etherplan.com/2019/05/18/proof-of-work-has-division-of-power-proof-of-stake-does-not/7619/

[5] What is Ethereum Classic? – by Donald McIntyre: https://etherplan.com/2019/07/02/what-is-ethereum-classic/8106/

[6] The Ethereum Classic Monetary Policy Explained – by Donald McIntyre: https://etherplan.com/2020/02/25/the-ethereum-classic-monetary-policy-explained/10025/

[7] The Format War, Layering, and Systemic Risk Will Define the Future Landscape of the Blockchain Industry – by Donald McIntyre: https://etherplan.com/2019/06/15/the-format-war-layering-and-systemic-risk-will-define-the-future-landscape-of-the-blockchain-industry/7820/

[8] Layer 1 Blockchains Compete With Gold, Layer 2 Systems Compete With Fiat – by Donald McIntyre: https://etherplan.com/2019/09/20/layer-1-blockchains-compete-with-gold-layer-2-systems-compete-with-fiat/8756/

[9] Value of all the gold in the world – by Golden Eagle Coins: https://www.goldeneaglecoin.com/Guide/value-of-all-the-gold-in-the-world

Code Is Law

Author: Donald McIntyre

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